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one of the few honest politicians..
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voiceofTruth
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 10, 2010 5:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
The federal budget deficit rose to $150.4 billion last month, the largest November gap on record. And the government's deficits are set to climb higher if Congress passes a tax-cut plan that's estimated to cost $855 billion over two years.

The Treasury Department says November's budget gap was 25 percent more than the deficit in November 2009. Much of last month's jump, though, was due to a quirk of the calendar determining when benefit checks are mailed.

For the first two months of the current budget year, which began Oct. 1, the deficit totals $290.8 billion. That's 2 percent less than for the same period a year ago. And economists had been estimating that the full-year deficit would decline after two years of record highs.

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prozacrefugee
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

voiceofTruth wrote:
Quote:
With both corporations and homes deleveraging right now and a trade deficit you can either run a deficit, or shrink the size of the economy


This is not set in stone. Why does deficit spending and growth need to go hand and hand. Its time to start doing things differently.


Because math.

One person's savings is another person's debt. Identity relationship - if you deposit $20 the bank now has a debt to you of $20.

Total savings must equal total debt. Debts will be taken as negative savings (we're consistently using the perspective of the savers here). Take that total, and divide it into 3 parts - government savings (G), private savings (P), and foreign savings in the US (F).

G + P + F = 0. So far so good? If one sector lends more another has to lend less, so they equal zero.

Foreign investment is the opposite of a trade deficit. When you trade goods to a foreign country, you have to give them dollars. If there's a trade imbalance, there's a net movement of dollars into foreign hands. This is identical to foreign savings. So we'll take the trade in goods as the inverse of foreign investment. F = -T.

So
G + P - T = 0.

Or G = T - P.

Government savings will equal the amount of goods we import minus private savings. To increase government savings you need to either raise exports, or REDUCE private savings. Assuming the first isn't under control, you're left with the relation of government savings as the inverse of private savings.

Currently private savings are extremely high, as both business and consumers deleverage their debt. So either the government runs a deficit, or you have people save less. And to do the latter you either make credit falsely available (the answer under Bush), or you shrink the economy so private savings are less. But you CANNOT both increase private savings and government debt without a major movement in trade balances. And since the US is over 20% of world GDP you'd need a massive, worldwide upheaval for that, or an extreme devaluation of the dollar relative to every other currency.
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 10, 2010 7:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote


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voiceofTruth
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 11, 2010 3:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The three costliest entitlements are Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, which respectively make up 20 percent, 12 percent, and eight percent of the federal budget. How about we start by addressing entitlements.
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A strong body makes the mind strong. As to the species of exercises, I advise the gun. While this gives moderate exercise to the body, it gives boldness, enterprise and independence to the mind. Games played with the ball, and others of that nature, are too violent for the body and stamp no character on the mind. Let your gun therefore be your constant companion of your walks.
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Angel Bobby Peru
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 12, 2010 4:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

voiceofTruth wrote:
Have you ever thought about cutting the deficit? Has that concept ever crossed your mind? I doubt.


Have you ever thought of looking into Clinton's presidency, son? Has the concept of joining the real world instead of sucking the flacid penis of Ron Paul ever crossed your mind? I doubt it.
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prozacrefugee
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 13, 2010 7:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

voiceofTruth wrote:
The three costliest entitlements are Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, which respectively make up 20 percent, 12 percent, and eight percent of the federal budget. How about we start by addressing entitlements.


OK, let's start.

First off is Social Security. What do you plan to do about that? Either we can go broke paying the Boomer's retirement, or we can cut it. Aside from everyone's folks moving in with them, there's another problem. As the Boomers all cut spending at once in reaction you're going to see an extreme drop in aggregate demand, and an extreme drop in asset prices (they'll all try to sell their McMansions at once, driving down housing even more).

This translates as no jobs - basically a depression. You've just sent the largest birth cohort into poverty, and now they don't buy anything. From you, or anyone else. Revenues will take a nose dive as well, likely offsetting ANY cuts you've made.

I'm all for cutting spending, but you are talking about people that paid into the system for their entire lives. Either you shaft them, or you shaft people in the future (which will never happen).

Where is your defense of why tax cuts for the top 2% are somehow more important? Do you support extending the Bush tax cuts?
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aguchi
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 14, 2010 12:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Social Security is currently running a surplus (which it always has) and is solvent through 2037 if we do nothing. A few relatively minor adjustments and it's good for another 75 years. The hype over Social Security's pending doom is way overblown. It should not even be considered in discussions of general spending. It has been paid for since day one and is not a contributing factor to our debt problems right now. One of the best fixes for SS is more jobs since that directly affects it's revenues. I'm not suggesting it doesn't need attention, but it's not the financial bogeyman pundits like to make it out to be.

Military spending and homeland security on the other hand make up over half of the discretionary budget, and DoD spending alone is about 20% of the overall federal budget. (That does not include the costs of the wars) How about we start there?

Extension of the Bush tax cuts for the $250k+ class may have been justified if we lived in an ideal world without economic calamity. However, a sober look at our situation tells a different story. Anyone who thinks we can run two (or more) simultaneous wars for the better part of a decade and have unfunded tax cuts at the same time is delusional. Reaganomics does not work! Anyone who voted for Bush and supported the wars should be happy to pay for them. Isn't that the fiscally responsible thing to do? Pay for the things you want?

While Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid have issues and need some level of modification to stay solvent, they are NOT why we are in the current pile of shit we find ourselves. Economic collapse, two poorly run decade long wars, health care costs and the scam artist run financial sector are the culprits. It's easy to point the finger at "entitlements" but it ignores reality. We have a large deficit because the economy collapsed, not because of entitlement programs.

http://www.cepr.net/index.php/op-eds-&-columns/op-eds-&-columns/the-tax-deal-and-the-apocalypse


http://www.cepr.net/index.php/clips/dean-bakers-op-eds/
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prozacrefugee
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 14, 2010 8:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

^The ugly little secret nobody wants to admit is these proposals are basically all a way to dump social security while maintaining the regressive FICA tax. Basically it's a huge raid on the trust fund.

Personally I'm in favor of both raising the retirement age slightly and, more importantly, lifting the dollar limits on FICA. If you had the latter you'd immediately stop hearing the calls about solvency, since the prize that the village is actually trying to get (shifting tax burdens to the lower classes) would be gone. It would also simplify the tax code and reduce burdens on hiring.
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prozacrefugee
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 30, 2011 1:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

prozacrefugee wrote:
voiceofTruth wrote:
Quote:
With both corporations and homes deleveraging right now and a trade deficit you can either run a deficit, or shrink the size of the economy


This is not set in stone. Why does deficit spending and growth need to go hand and hand. Its time to start doing things differently.


Because math.


Our friends in England, who started an austerity program (i.e. reduced government spending) last year are demonstrating this in real time right now, if anyone's interested.

http://falseeconomy.org.uk/blog/household-debt-up

Relevant because both the administration and GOP seem gung-ho on forcing the same solution here.

And for the record, Obama SUCKS at econ.
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Angel Bobby Peru
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 4:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

prozacrefugee wrote:
And for the record, Obama SUCKS at econ.


Obama has sucked at more than that. I mean, some nonsense was to be expected, but this dude is dropping the ball more than Braylon Edwards did in 2008.
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prozacrefugee
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 13, 2011 1:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Angel Bobby Peru wrote:
prozacrefugee wrote:
And for the record, Obama SUCKS at econ.


Obama has sucked at more than that. I mean, some nonsense was to be expected, but this dude is dropping the ball more than Braylon Edwards did in 2008.


Yeah, I'm seriously hoping for a primary challenge in 12. Kucinich, Spitzer, or Pelosi.
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Son of Reminisce
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PostPosted: Fri May 20, 2011 4:52 am    Post subject: u all crack me up... Reply with quote

i think the easiest solution would be to have all these politicians; on their various platforms/levels, have a Simcity challenge. Those who can create a stable environment keep their seats in office.

The Simcity project... coming to a channel on your tube soon.
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ChannelZero
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2011 11:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

the last post in this forum was may 20th which is my brother's birthday.

in his honor, i am breaking the 6+ month streak!!

Razz
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Angel Bobby Peru
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 1:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

How do I "like" Matt's last post?!
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