Breakbeat Science Phorum Forum Index Breakbeat Science Phorum
Good Times
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

The Danger Posed By The Deficit is: Zero?
Goto page Previous  1, 2
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    Breakbeat Science Phorum Forum Index -> Political Science
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
voiceofTruth
Rinsester


Joined: 10 Oct 2005
Posts: 617
Location: The Light

PostPosted: Tue May 25, 2010 11:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
May 24 (Bloomberg) -- Speculators are buying gold faster than the world’s biggest producers can mine it as analysts forecast a 27 percent rally that may extend the longest run of annual gains since at least 1920.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a6f.XxAJB0Rc
_________________
A strong body makes the mind strong. As to the species of exercises, I advise the gun. While this gives moderate exercise to the body, it gives boldness, enterprise and independence to the mind. Games played with the ball, and others of that nature, are too violent for the body and stamp no character on the mind. Let your gun therefore be your constant companion of your walks.
Thomas Jefferson
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
prozacrefugee
Riot Nrrd


Joined: 19 Nov 2003
Posts: 9465
Location: living in a powderkeg and giving off sparks

PostPosted: Tue May 25, 2010 12:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

voiceofTruth wrote:
Quote:
May 24 (Bloomberg) -- Speculators are buying gold faster than the world’s biggest producers can mine it as analysts forecast a 27 percent rally that may extend the longest run of annual gains since at least 1920.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a6f.XxAJB0Rc


And so much against your point in your own article. Perhaps that's why you don't post sources normally.

Perhaps you should read the title -
Quote:
Gold Rising as Euro Weakens Spurs More Speculation


How is the Euro's crisis an indictment of the US deficit? Oh, it's not.

Quote:
Gold is still at half the peak set in 1980, after adjusting for inflation. Then, prices rose to $850, equal to $2,266 today, according to a calculator on the website of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.


Remember that after this Reagan ran what were at the time record deficits. So obviously historically deficit spending and a high price of gold don't signal economic collapse.

Quote:

Supply from mines, which peaked in 2001, fell in five of the last eight years, data from London-based GFMS show. Companies are digging deeper to extract dwindling reserves, with mines in South Africa extending as far as 2.35 miles (3.8 kilometers) down.


Wait, as supply goes down price goes up? A-MAZ-ING

As for our looming economic collapse:
Quote:

The world economy will expand 4.2 percent this year, the International Monetary Fund said April 21, raising its January projection from 3.9 percent.


How again is actual economic growth and almost no currency devaluation supposed to cause hyperinflation again? Step by step please, not just a Ron Paul slogan.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website AIM Address
Kenkajin 2.0
Chairman of the Horde


Joined: 15 Dec 2003
Posts: 6500
Location: Nerd Carolina

PostPosted: Tue May 25, 2010 4:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I predict we are about to experience a double dip. Not because of our deficit but because the fact that global markets are interconnected.

The Euro crisis is driving the demand for gold.

Also the US situation more closely resembles the Japanese "lost decade" of the 90s versus the current crisis in Greece.

You may all go back to your soapboxes now.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message AIM Address
aguchi
Breakster


Joined: 26 Jul 2003
Posts: 412
Location: Chicago, IL

PostPosted: Tue May 25, 2010 6:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE64O2GH20100525?type=ousivMolt
_________________
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
voiceofTruth
Rinsester


Joined: 10 Oct 2005
Posts: 617
Location: The Light

PostPosted: Thu May 27, 2010 9:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
The stock of money fell from $14.2 trillion to $13.9 trillion in the three months to April, amounting to an annual rate of contraction of 9.6pc. The assets of insitutional money market funds fell at a 37pc rate, the sharpest drop ever.




Bad news: we're back to 1931. Good news: it's not 1933 yet

"It’s frightening," said Professor Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research. "The plunge in M3 has no precedent since the Great Depression. The dominant reason for this is that regulators across the world are pressing banks to raise capital asset ratios and to shrink their risk assets. This is why the US is not recovering properly," he said.

The US authorities have an entirely different explanation for the failure of stimulus measures to gain full traction. They are opting instead for yet further doses of Keynesian spending, despite warnings from the IMF that the gross public debt of the US will reach 97pc of GDP next year and 110pc by 2015.

Larry Summers, President Barack Obama’s top economic adviser, has asked Congress to "grit its teeth" and approve a fresh fiscal boost of $200bn to keep growth on track. "We are nearly 8m jobs short of normal employment. For millions of Americans the economic emergency grinds on," he said.

David Rosenberg from Gluskin Sheff said the White House appears to have reversed course just weeks after Mr Obama vowed to rein in a budget deficit of $1.5 trillion (9.4pc of GDP) this year and set up a commission to target cuts. "You truly cannot make this stuff up. The US governnment is freaked out about the prospect of a double-dip," he said.




LOL
Quote:
They are opting instead for yet further doses of Keynesian spending, despite warnings from the IMF that the gross public debt of the US will reach 97pc of GDP next year and 110pc by 2015.



Us crazy Ron Paulites, yeah we have no idea what we are talking about.
_________________
A strong body makes the mind strong. As to the species of exercises, I advise the gun. While this gives moderate exercise to the body, it gives boldness, enterprise and independence to the mind. Games played with the ball, and others of that nature, are too violent for the body and stamp no character on the mind. Let your gun therefore be your constant companion of your walks.
Thomas Jefferson
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
prozacrefugee
Riot Nrrd


Joined: 19 Nov 2003
Posts: 9465
Location: living in a powderkeg and giving off sparks

PostPosted: Thu May 27, 2010 12:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

^^^^ You sure don't, considering a drop in money stock (not value, but actual amount) is deflationary, and the exact opposite of what you're claiming.

This is a classic depression cycle - banks, overextended, pull in the money supply. So even though there's productive capacity there there's no money to buy things with. And conversely since there's no jobs for the unemployed they have no money to buy things with, which leads to less demand for production, which leads to less jobs, etc. Which is why spending is the proper answer here, the question is whether enough has been done by the anemic stimulus plan of last year.

Go look at the graph on the previous page. The main reason for such large deficits currently is lost revenue, not increased spending. Cutting spending now will increase that problem, leading to less value overall.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website AIM Address
voiceofTruth
Rinsester


Joined: 10 Oct 2005
Posts: 617
Location: The Light

PostPosted: Wed Jun 09, 2010 9:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:


Gold's surge to a record sparked speculation that central banks may be stepping up purchases of the precious metal.

Tuesday, gold contracts for June delivery rose $4.70, or 0.4%, to $1,244 a troy ounce, a record settlement price on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold also hit an intraday record, surging to $1,252.10. In euro terms, the metal also hit a record of €1,042.94 ($1,242.87) in the London market, a gain of 2.5%.

The metal has surged over worries about Europe's debt woes and the slumping value of the euro. Investors in metals and currency markets have been on alert for any sign that the world's central banks, and China in particular, are shifting reserves out of the euro and into gold.



http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703302604575294093148400182.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection
_________________
A strong body makes the mind strong. As to the species of exercises, I advise the gun. While this gives moderate exercise to the body, it gives boldness, enterprise and independence to the mind. Games played with the ball, and others of that nature, are too violent for the body and stamp no character on the mind. Let your gun therefore be your constant companion of your walks.
Thomas Jefferson
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
prozacrefugee
Riot Nrrd


Joined: 19 Nov 2003
Posts: 9465
Location: living in a powderkeg and giving off sparks

PostPosted: Wed Jun 09, 2010 12:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
The metal has surged over worries about Europe's debt woes and the slumping value of the euro.


Kenkajin 2.0 wrote:
The Euro crisis is driving the demand for gold.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website AIM Address
prozacrefugee
Riot Nrrd


Joined: 19 Nov 2003
Posts: 9465
Location: living in a powderkeg and giving off sparks

PostPosted: Tue Aug 31, 2010 2:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kenkajin 2.0 wrote:
I predict we are about to experience a double dip. Not because of our deficit but because the fact that global markets are interconnected.

The Euro crisis is driving the demand for gold.

Also the US situation more closely resembles the Japanese "lost decade" of the 90s versus the current crisis in Greece.

You may all go back to your soapboxes now.


As time's going on I'm agreeing more and more with this - the only weirdness is I think we're going to see the dollar continue to weaken internationally even as we look at an actual deflationary period domestically starting next year.

With the stimulus gone, oil decoupling from the dollar, and the other currency back (housing and related derivatives) still falling there's a quite interesting situation where you have a currency losing value while at the same time the money supply of it is diminishing. Possibly the two will cancel each other out in a very unhappy way, or we could simply see a depression here while imported goods from countries not as hard hit (China and Germany) skyrocket in price. In the latter case, though, the really big worry would be what the rise in oil would do down the road.

M3 (no longer reported by US) shrinking at 9%?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7769126/US-money-supply-plunges-at-1930s-pace-as-Obama-eyes-fresh-stimulus.html
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website AIM Address
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    Breakbeat Science Phorum Forum Index -> Political Science All times are GMT - 4 Hours
Goto page Previous  1, 2
Page 2 of 2

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group